"Farmer in Chief"

An article in the New York Times today entitled "Farmer in Chief" posed some very interesting ideas regarding our nation's food supply system, and it raised some very common-sense alternatives to our current addiction to using fossil fuels during food production.
Did you know
- that we currently use 10 calories of fossil fuels to produce one calorie of food,
- that 40% of grain grown in the U.S. is used to feed animals in feedlots,
- that putting plants and animals on the same farm reduces needs for pesticides and herbicides,
- and that polyculture farming is more productive and more healthy than monoculture farming?

I also found out that when Eleanor Roosevelt publicized her "Victory Garden" in 1943 as a way to help sustainably feed ourselves and support troops overseas, it led to the creation of 20 million family plots--people growing organic food in their own backyards!

In China, I've become very accustomed to local farmer's markets. In fact we have a pretty large farmer's market behind our school. Inside I can find anything from fresh, hand-pulled noodles or rice cakes to fish caught earlier that day, from tomatoes, cucumbers and lettuce, to apples, oranges, and other fruits and vegetables I've never even seen before (papaya, dragon fruit, pomegranate, and many types of melons). I can buy eggs or the chicken (both fresh although I doubt the eggs came from that particular chicken...).

I also often find trucks parked by the side of the road loaded down with oranges (since we're in the wet, Florida-like south), or a wagon filled with vegetables hitched to tricycle. Presumably all this food comes from the surrounding area and its all fresh (within days of being picked... sometimes on Monday a seller's oranges start out green but by Friday they're more yellow...) but they never seem to run out (which leads me to believe the bountiful fruit farm must be close!).

I write all this to ask: How can a "developing country", like China, have ubiquitous access to organic, locally grown foods and farmer's markets (even in a dense city of 10 million), while the United States, whose citizens struggle with a very poor, corn starch heavy, bad calorie, junk-food diet, has erected barriers to the development of local, organic foods and food markets?

I can't remember the last time I saw a farmer's market in America. Moreover, I can't remember the last time I saw someone buy an animal that looked like an animal (I grew up knowing meat was packed and that's that!). The fact is that local, organic food not only reduces carbon emissions, supports local economies, and protects our food supply from terrorism (... living in America it seems you almost have to add that one as a selling point these days), but it's healthier. Healthy diets lengthen lifespans, fight disease, and naturally support our bodies' inherent chemical and biological functions. Healthy diets that rely on good calories (from fresh fruits and vegetables, not fats and oils) can reduce long-term medical costs and relieve some of the financial burden from government funded programs like MediCare and MedicAid.

Maybe it's time we all start our own little victory garden, for our own health and the health of our nation.

My sense of the market

Well there are one of two things going on right now. Either my gut feeling about the market is really in tune to the ebb and flow of our global economy, or there is a worldwide conspiracy to stoke investors back into a market that is sitting at historic lows (some stocks are as low as they've been in 25 years!!). Two updated links on the right (Historic Lows & and Stock Valuation) both point to the fact that companies' stock value are insensibly low. Most of these companies are still very healthy and profitable, but because of various reasons people are pulling out of the market and stock prices continue to fall.

Of course if our economy is really headed into a "global recession", then companies stand to make smaller profits in the near future; however, an investment now (or within the next few weeks) will surely yield profits in the next couple of years.

Here's a quote from James Grant, editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer and the author of the forthcoming book “Mr. Market Miscalculates.”:

“People keep on stepping on the same rakes because money, like romance, is only partly an intellectual experience. Money, like sex, brings out some thought — but also much heavy breathing and little stored knowledge. In finance, the process is cyclical. Some people learn from their ancestors, but mostly they repeat the same mistakes. Thus it has always been and thus it will always be.”

If I had some cash...

So I've been watching the market lately, I know everyone thinks "What a horrible time for investors", but let me tell you... If I had some cash...

I'd buy.

Why? Because a lot stocks right now are sitting at historic lows. Since I started my portfolio two and half years ago, I've been watching some pretty strong stocks do some pretty strange things. I'm sure people remember the "Shanghai Slip" in February of '07 when some computer glitches in China made the markets skip a beat for a day. A lot of US stocks slid hard and fast hitting 52-week lows in one day, but the Chinese stocks stopped dropping after the 10% cap (in China stocks can only move up or down 10% per day). This is when I bought in Apple, Inc (NYSE:AAPL) at around $85/share. As of today, Apple sits at around $90/share. Outside of these recent market malfunctions, the company is sound. Their product line lures brand loyalty like no other and every year they consistently grab a larger share of the market and beat earnings projections (although to be fair, their earnings estimates are rather conservative in comparison to the company's dynamic expansion in recent years). Two weeks ago I sold my shares of Apple at $140/share, but until six months ago their stock was rated by various companies to have a value of approximately $200/share and even peaked at $212/share (knew I should've sold then...). My point: low is the best time to buy; and, if the percentage gained is high enough to make a nice profit, sell! I made approximately 60% profit and could've made more had I been willing to settle with 110% profit six months ago.

Other stocks that I've watched crawl to speculative lows recently are a few multinational companies I invested in earlier (and when I say invested I mean made money from trading). One of them is iShares Trust FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Fund (NYSE:FXI). Although now almost all the charts I can find show that FXI never hit over $200, I found my account history online and know for a fact I sold my shares at $200/share in October 2007. In February I bought them at $104/share. Now FXI is $28/share and from what I can see FXI's top 10 holdings are all strong companies in China (Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Mobile, China Construction Bank, CNOOC, China Unicom, etc.) They list 25% holdings in IT, 25% in Manufacturing, and almost 50% in Financial Services. Although the United States' financial system is in shambles right now, I can say that if any country is in a decent position with finances-- it's China (with over one trillion dollars in federal reserves in 2006 and a savings rate of approximately 30% of houshold income). The Chinese financial system is not suffering from a lack of liquidity like the United States, but unfortunately investor confidence is just as low here. Many people I've talked to have lost a lot of money on the open market, real estate prices are still falling from mad speculation and gross profiteering; however, the companies listed on FXI's top 10 are still showing signs of successful growth! If I had to guess, in a few months FXI will tack a gain of at least 50% or $42/share (which is comparable to August's share price).

I'll post some information on OTCBB's later in my next post... "If I had $1,000 to day-trade"